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Agricultural Sustainability and Food Production October 07, 2022

Project Advisor: William Masters (Tufts University) Raw data: .xlsx Full questionnaire: .pdf

Agricultural Sustainability and Food Production

In collaboration with William Masters at Tufts University, we asked leaders, fellows, and awardees of the American Society of Agronomy, the American Society of Animal Science, and the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association about their views on agriculture. A total of 111 experts participated in the survey. More details and criteria for inclusion can be found here.

The questions and responses are summarized below. All information on this page is in the public domain and can be cited as follows:

Chris Said and William A. Masters (2022), Apollo Academic Survey on Agricultural Sustainability and Food Production. Released 7 October 2022 at www.apollosurveys.org.

Primary results

  1. Threats to food production sustainability and the role of climate change: Climate change was ranked the biggest threat to sustainability of food production in the U.S., with 51% of researchers ranking it as the top threat. Lower ranked threats included resource depletion, economic viability, government regulation, and biodiversity loss, which were ranked as the top threat by 21%, 19%, 10% and 2% of respondents respectively.
  2. Actions to improve sustainability and use of more traditional techniques: We asked respondents what changes in agricultural production methods could improve the sustainability of food production. Respondents favored farm diversification, defined as producing more than 3 different crop and livestock species, which 69% said would improve sustainably. Fewer respondents thought that producing closer to consumers (45%), more organic certification (27%), or using older more traditional production techniques (11%) would improve sustainability.
  3. Threats to well-being from how food is produced: When we asked respondents to rank threats to the overall well-being of Americans from the way food is produced, the top threat cited by researchers is how food manufacturing transforms whole foods into processed and packaged items with added salt, sugar and other potentially harmful chemicals, which 32% of researchers ranked as the top threat. Lower ranked threats included greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, risks from bacteria and antibiotic resistance, and risks from crop chemical residues and runoff.
  4. Actions to improve the well-being of Americans: The highest priority was more restrictive standards on the use of antibiotics in livestock and food animals, which 58% of respondents thought would improve the well-being of Americans. Fewer respondents thought that more restrictive standards on use of crop chemicals (44%) or more restrictive standards on the use of GMOs (11%) would improve the well-being of Americans.

  1. Question 1

    What do you believe are the greatest threats to the continued ability of U.S. farmers to produce food for Americans and the world, over the next 20-30 years?
    1. • Climate change (e.g. heat waves, drought and floods, storm intensity)
    2. • Resource depletion (e.g. soil degradation, loss of access to irrigation water)
    3. • Biodiversity loss (e.g. too few crop varieties, loss of pollinators or other ecosystem function)
    4. • Economic viability (e.g. labor scarcity, high input costs, low output prices)
    5. • Government regulation (e.g. on land use, crop inputs, & livestock practices)

    Results

    survey 1 responses

  2. Question 2

    What do you believe are the greatest threats to the overall wellbeing of Americans caused by how the U.S. food supply is produced, over the next 20-30 years?
    1. • Harms from greenhouse gas emissions (especially CO2 and methane), loss of carbon sinks
    2. • Harms from crop chemicals (especially fertilizer runoff, pesticides and herbicides poisoning or residues)
    3. • Harms from bacteria and antibiotic resistance (including bacteria affecting food safety)
    4. • Harms from food manufacturing (including added salt & sugar or chemicals in packaging)
    5. • Harms from animal welfare (considering Americans’ interest in both people and animals)

    Results

    survey 2 responses

  3. Question 3

    On balance, for the sustainability of agricultural production over the coming 20-30 years, what do you expect would be the effect of:
    1. • A larger fraction of farmland managed with older methods, instead of the latest techniques.
    2. • A larger fraction of farms being more diversified, defined here as producing more than 3 different crop and livestock species.
    3. • A larger fraction of food was produced closer to consumers, for example within the same region or state of the U.S.
    4. • A larger fraction of food was produced in ways that would meet the requirements of USDA organic certification.

    Results

    survey 3 responses

  4. Question 4

    On balance, for the wellbeing of Americans, taking account of how changes would affect all of our concerns, what do you expect would be the effect of:
    1. • Using more restrictive standards than we now have to limit subtherapeutic antibiotic use.
    2. • Using more restrictive standards than we now have to limit use of genetically modified organisms
    3. • Using more restrictive standards than we now have to limit use of crop chemicals, including fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides.

    Results

    survey 4 responses